is here can see plenty of protest is here waiting to see but i think we can go now to the beginning of the inquiry. i could not figure out why i was getting — i could not figure out why i was getting these _ i could not figure out why i was getting these conflicting - i could not figure out why i was - getting these conflicting messages about— getting these conflicting messages about whether _ getting these conflicting messages about whether something - getting these conflicting messages about whether something could . about whether something could happen, — about whether something could happen. the _ about whether something could happen, the scale _ about whether something could happen, the scale of— about whether something could happen, the scale of the - about whether something could happen, the scale of the capital about whether something could - happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and _ happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and what — happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and what it — happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and what it was _ happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and what it was going - happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and what it was going to - happen, the scale of the capital are wcs and what it was going to be. . pa rt of part of the message that is still correct — part of the message that is still correct at — part of the message that is still correct at point _ part of the message that is still correct at point is _ part of the message that is still correct at point is that - part of the message that is still correct at point is that if- part of the message that is still correct at point is that if at - part of the message that is still correct at point is that if at thati correct at point is that if at that point _ correct at point is that if at that point you — correct at point is that if at that point you had _ correct at point is that if at that point you had asked _ correct at point is that if at that point you had asked me - correct at point is that if at that point you had asked me what . correct at point is that if at that point you had asked me what is correct at point is that if at that - point you had asked me what is going to be point you had asked me what is going to he the _ point you had asked me what is going to he the tasting _ point you had asked me what is going to be the lasting damage _ point you had asked me what is going to be the lasting damage from - point you had asked me what is going to be the lasting damage from this, l to be the lasting damage from this, i stitt— to be the lasting damage from this, tstitt would — to be the lasting damage from this, i still would have _ to be the lasting damage from this, i still would have probably- to be the lasting damage from this, i still would have probably said - to be the lasting damage from this, i still would have probably said it i i still would have probably said it is going — i still would have probably said it is going to — i still would have probably said it is going to he _ i still would have probably said it is going to be what _ i still would have probably said it is going to be what we _ i still would have probably said it is going to be what we do - i still would have probably said it is going to be what we do to - i still would have probably said it| is going to be what we do to fight it. is going to be what we do to fight it rather— is going to be what we do to fight it. rather than— is going to be what we do to fight it. rather than the _ is going to be what we do to fight it. rather than the actual - is going to be what we do to fight it. rather than the actual impactl is going to be what we do to fight i it. rather than the actual impact of the disease — it. rather than the actual impact of the disease i— it. rather than the actual impact of the disease. i was— it. rather than the actual impact of the disease. i was increasingly- the disease. i was increasingly concerned _ the disease. i was increasingly concerned about— the disease. i was increasingly concerned about it. _ the disease. i was increasingly concerned about it. you - the disease. i was increasingly concerned about it.— the disease. i was increasingly concerned about it. you have in fact already given _

concerned about it. you have in fact already given evidence _ concerned about it. you have in fact already given evidence in _ concerned about it. you have in fact already given evidence in relation i to why you suggested at an earlier stage there were comparisons between swine flu and you have described the importance to you of not talking the economy down. the first line, he doesn't think anything can be done, may ijust ask doesn't think anything can be done, may i just ask you, this doesn't think anything can be done, may ijust ask you, this date the 3rd of march comes after your meeting with the civil contingency secretariat, after the cobra of which there is some early debate about measures and what can be done, and if you did say on the 3rd of march two mr cummings i don't think anything can be done, that casts a very significant light upon what you were being told around that time. i cannot say exactly what i said to my

adviser, _ cannot say exactly what i said to my adviser, nor— cannot say exactly what i said to my adviser, norwould i cannot say exactly what i said to my adviser, nor would i necessarily ptaced — adviser, nor would i necessarily placed too— adviser, nor would i necessarily placed too much reliance on his reporting — placed too much reliance on his reporting of what i said, but i think— reporting of what i said, but i think nry— reporting of what i said, but i think my impression was at that time that you _ think my impression was at that time that you know, because of what we have said _ that you know, because of what we have said about borders, but because of what _ have said about borders, but because of what we _ have said about borders, but because of what we said about the other nreasures— of what we said about the other measures open to us, that it goes back— measures open to us, that it goes back to _ measures open to us, that it goes back to the — measures open to us, that it goes back to the questions i was asking, i back to the questions i was asking, i could _ back to the questions i was asking, icoutd not— back to the questions i was asking, i could not see the no plan. i could not see _ i could not see the no plan. i could not see what... saw the npis where to m3, _ not see what... saw the npis where to me, probably what imran is getting — to me, probably what imran is getting at— to me, probably what imran is getting at in his e—mail, pretty... you know. — getting at in his e—mail, pretty... you know, far—fetched in my imagination. i was still gestating that~ _

imagination. i was still gestating that. on — imagination. i was still gestating that. . , ,, imagination. i was still gestating that. ., ,, . . that. on a press conference in march ou said that. on a press conference in march you said we — that. on a press conference in march you said we are _ that. on a press conference in march you said we are as _ that. on a press conference in march you said we are as a _ that. on a press conference in march you said we are as a country - you said we are as a country extremely well prepared. as it turned out that was not so but i want to ask you, that we can before you had received the draft action plan, that contained the delay document which you have been shown in draft form and in that document, there is that assertion, we are well prepared and we have plans in place etc, do you think you told the world that we were well prepared on the third because you had seen it in that action plan, the draft which had been reading over the weekend? yes, this is the second, the weekend of them _ yes, this is the second, the weekend of them 28— yes, this is the second, the weekend of the... 28 february one of march? was there _ of the... 28 february one of march? was there at— of the... 28 february one of march? was there at leap year, was at the 29th of february? i really don't know, mrjohnson. 29th of february? i really don't know, mrjohnson._ 29th of february? i really don't know, mrjohnson. anyway, it is certainly true — know, mrjohnson. anyway, it is certainly true i _ know, mrjohnson. anyway, it is certainly true i was, _

know, mrjohnson. anyway, it is certainly true i was, the - know, mrjohnson. anyway, it is certainly true i was, the generali certainly true i was, the general reassurances i was getting where that we _ reassurances i was getting where that we were well prepared. so the scales— that we were well prepared. so the scales had — that we were well prepared. so the scales had not yet fallen about four in contest _ scales had not yet fallen about four in contest entries. indeed. and you shook— in contest entries. indeed. and you shook hands — in contest entries. indeed. and you shook hands with patients at the royat— shook hands with patients at the royal free hospital in the 1st of march — royal free hospital in the 1st of march. you know that of course you are tater _ march. you know that of course you are later criticised for that. may we take — are later criticised for that. may we take it — are later criticised for that. may we take it that you had not seen or at least _ we take it that you had not seen or at least been advised of we take it that you had not seen or at least been advised— at least been advised of the contents of _ at least been advised of the contents of the _ at least been advised of the contents of the spi-b - at least been advised of the contents of the spi-b paper at least been advised of the - contents of the spi-b paper around contents of the spi—b paper around that time in fact, the paper came later, the 3rd of march, but advice was given generally before that, advising against greetings such as shaking hands. did you know? i didn't, but i do think that it was, i didn't, but i do think that it was, i shouldn't— didn't, but i do think that it was, i shouldn't have done that in retrospect and i should have been more _ retrospect and i should have been more precautionary. but i wanted to be encouraging to people. and so i think— be encouraging to people. and so i think it _ be encouraging to people. and so i think it is _ be encouraging to people. and so i think it is on — be encouraging to people. and so i think it is on that day that i go to

cotindate. — think it is on that day that i go to colindale, to phd, and although i had been — colindale, to phd, and although i had been told, this is in my statement, although i have been told that we _ statement, although i have been told that we have a fantastic belt and ttraces— that we have a fantastic belt and braces system, i was a little concerned about, i had a feeling that perhaps they were not really as across _ that perhaps they were not really as across the _ that perhaps they were not really as across the situation as i had been led across the situation as i had been ted to— across the situation as i had been led to believe. mr across the situation as i had been led to believe.— led to believe. mr hancock gave evidence to _ led to believe. mr hancock gave evidence to the _ led to believe. mr hancock gave evidence to the effect _ led to believe. mr hancock gave evidence to the effect that - led to believe. mr hancock gave evidence to the effect that he i led to believe. mr hancock gave i evidence to the effect that he was told on the 18th of february by public health england that the test system was unsustainable. that it would not be able to operate beyond the handful of the first few hundred cases. did you know that when you visited colindale? marat cases. did you know that when you visited colindale?— cases. did you know that when you visited colindale? now and in fact i think i gave — visited colindale? now and in fact i think i gave a _ visited colindale? now and in fact i think i gave a clip _ visited colindale? now and in fact i think i gave a clip to _ visited colindale? now and in fact i think i gave a clip to the _ visited colindale? now and in fact i think i gave a clip to the media - think i gave a clip to the media which — think i gave a clip to the media which i — think i gave a clip to the media which i gave some figure for the number— which i gave some figure for the number of— which i gave some figure for the number of daily tests that we or i believed — number of daily tests that we or i believed then that we were doing and i do remember chris being, the cmo

being— i do remember chris being, the cmo being quite... sounding confident at least to— being quite... sounding confident at least to me — being quite... sounding confident at least to me about the number of tests— least to me about the number of tests we — least to me about the number of tests we were capable of doing at around _ tests we were capable of doing at around that time. i now cannot remember— around that time. i now cannot remember the exact... around that time. i now cannot remember the exact. . .- around that time. i now cannot remember the exact... cobra on the 4th of march. _ remember the exact... cobra on the 4th of march, you _ remember the exact... cobra on the 4th of march, you cheered _ remember the exact... cobra on the 4th of march, you cheered that. - remember the exact... cobra on the 4th of march, you cheered that. you were presented with a paper, potential impact of behaviour and social interventions. again, it is illustrative of what you were being told that the time, mrjohnson, because it makes plain that... behavioural and social interventions can be applied as part of an hmg response including the expected impact, operational policy, sage is not provided recommendation of interventions or package of interventions or package of interventions that the government may choose to apply. the first question is... due understand that

sage was never going to be telling you, mrjohnson, you must do this. it could only ever provide advice about the nature of the interventions and the risks and so on. it could never tell you what to do what you have to consider doing. that's right. sage is like our, it is a _ that's right. sage is like our, it is a doctor—patient relationship. the doctor— is a doctor—patient relationship. the doctor cannot ogle you to do things _ the doctor cannot ogle you to do things the — the doctor cannot ogle you to do things. the doctor is not responsible for what you do. the doctor— responsible for what you do. the doctor says if you do this, then that, _ doctor says if you do this, then that, if— doctor says if you do this, then that, if you _ doctor says if you do this, then that, if you fail to do it then the other _ that, if you fail to do it then the other and _ that, if you fail to do it then the other. and that is basically how it works— other. and that is basically how it works and — other. and that is basically how it works and should work. was other. and that is basically how it works and should work.— other. and that is basically how it works and should work. was the chief medical officer _ works and should work. was the chief medical officer around _ works and should work. was the chief medical officer around that _ works and should work. was the chief medical officer around that time, - medical officer around that time, the 4th of march, telling you you must consider these behavioural

interventions? you will recall the first one is impose on the 12th of march. we don't know when you first started to... this march. we don't know when you first started t0- - -— started to... as i said before the break, actually, _ started to... as i said before the break, actually, the _ started to... as i said before the break, actually, the cmo - started to... as i said before the break, actually, the cmo and . started to... as i said before the break, actually, the cmo and i l started to... as i said before the i break, actually, the cmo and i had had a _ break, actually, the cmo and i had had a heart—to—heart about non—pharmaceutical interventions, particularly from a public health point _ particularly from a public health point of— particularly from a public health point of view, the costs and he really — point of view, the costs and he really stressed that. we had thought about _ really stressed that. we had thought about it _ really stressed that. we had thought about it and i could see that was the direction which things were starting — the direction which things were starting to go. and it's only a few days— starting to go. and it's only a few days later— starting to go. and it's only a few days later when i tell the public for the — days later when i tell the public for the first time i think on the, i think— for the first time i think on the, i think it _ for the first time i think on the, i think it is — for the first time i think on the, i think it is the ninth or thereabouts, we are going to have to start restricting social contact,.

that _ start restricting social contact,. that answer is perhaps my next question which is why was there a delay between the first debate between you and the chief medical officer about the possible imposition of these social interventions and the 12th of march when the first really significant intervention was imposed? i think there we have _ intervention was imposed? i think there we have to _ intervention was imposed? i think there we have to go _ intervention was imposed? i think there we have to go back - intervention was imposed? i think there we have to go back to - intervention was imposed? i think there we have to go back to the i there we have to go back to the earlier— there we have to go back to the earlier conversation that we had about— earlier conversation that we had about timeliness.— earlier conversation that we had i about timeliness._ now, about timeliness. mindset? now, about timeliness. mindset? now, about going _ about timeliness. mindset? now, about going early. _ about timeliness. mindset? now, about going early. about - about timeliness. mindset? now, about going early. about the - about timeliness. mindset? now, i about going early. about the issues that were _ about going early. about the issues that were raised by going hard, going _ that were raised by going hard, going early, which later became the mantra _ going early, which later became the mantra which in march, the problem was, _ mantra which in march, the problem was, so _ mantra which in march, the problem was, so i _ mantra which in march, the problem was, so i was — mantra which in march, the problem was, so i was told repeatedly by both _ was, so i was told repeatedly by both csa — was, so i was told repeatedly by both csa and cmo, you risked bounce back and _ both csa and cmo, you risked bounce back and behavioural fatigue. there

is a rah back and behavioural fatigue. there is a graph on _ back and behavioural fatigue. there is a graph on page _ back and behavioural fatigue. there is a graph on page two _ back and behavioural fatigue. tues is a graph on page two which shows what the waves, that is to say the transmission of the virus would be likely to be, depending on whether there was mitigation versus intervention or no mitigation or moderate intervention, and you can see different colours of the graph, of the lines, mrjohnson, depending on whether and what they were very stringent or less stringent. so it was plain to you that if no steps were taken, there would be a massive first wave, that is the black wave, but if it was reduced to some extent there will be moderate transmission and then a more severe intervention would be high transmission reduction. but to make absolutely plain, if we look at page five, there was at this stage on the 4th

of march, no mention of a lockdown as such. there were a range of potential interventions from starting large events, closure of schools, whole household isolations, social—distancing, impact. all schools, whole household isolations, social-distancing, impact.— social-distancing, impact. all these thin . s. but social-distancing, impact. all these things- but no _ social-distancing, impact. all these things. but no lockdown? _ social-distancing, impact. all these things. but no lockdown? now, - social-distancing, impact. all thesei things. but no lockdown? now, and that is quite — things. but no lockdown? now, and that is quite right. _ things. but no lockdown? now, and that is quite right. so _ things. but no lockdown? now, and that is quite right. so this _ things. but no lockdown? now, and that is quite right. so this is - things. but no lockdown? now, and that is quite right. so this is the - that is quite right. so this is the sort _ that is quite right. so this is the sort of— that is quite right. so this is the sort of double hump graph that really— sort of double hump graph that really became very influential in all of— really became very influential in all of our thinking and indeed is what _ all of our thinking and indeed is what in — all of our thinking and indeed is what i'm afraid tragically is more or less _ what i'm afraid tragically is more or less what happened. but the nreasures— or less what happened. but the measures that we could take to the press _ measures that we could take to the press that— measures that we could take to the press that first curve, first wave, were _ press that first curve, first wave, were all — press that first curve, first wave, were all very much couched in with caveats _ were all very much couched in with caveats about timeliness and going at the _ caveats about timeliness and going at the right moment. and caveats about timeliness and going at the right moment.— caveats about timeliness and going at the right moment. and it is right to say isn't — at the right moment. and it is right to say isn't it. _ at the right moment. and it is right to say isn't it, the _

at the right moment. and it is right to say isn't it, the wording - at the right moment. and it is right to say isn't it, the wording the - to say isn't it, the wording the chief medical officer used with you and spoke in cobra on the 2nd of march must not be implemented too early was in reference to interventions, pleural? yes, and if i could offer— interventions, pleural? yes, and if i could offer a _ interventions, pleural? yes, and if i could offer a suggestion - interventions, pleural? yes, and if i could offer a suggestion as - interventions, pleural? yes, and if i could offer a suggestion as to - i could offer a suggestion as to what _ i could offer a suggestion as to what was — i could offer a suggestion as to what was really going on, i think that, _ what was really going on, i think that, these are clear, we simply did not realise — that, these are clear, we simply did not realise how fast the disease was spreading _ not realise how fast the disease was spreading and if you remember, the predictions — spreading and if you remember, the predictions were that the peak was going _ predictions were that the peak was going to _ predictions were that the peak was going to come in mid may orjune, i think _ going to come in mid may orjune, i think and _ going to come in mid may orjune, i think and it — going to come in mid may orjune, i think. and it was really well in advance — think. and it was really well in advance of that. if think. and it was really well in advance of that.— think. and it was really well in advance of that. if we go back to .ae. advance of that. if we go back to page two. _ advance of that. if we go back to page two. and — advance of that. if we go back to page two, and the _ advance of that. if we go back to page two, and the graph... - advance of that. if we go back to page two, and the graph... you| advance of that. if we go back to i page two, and the graph... you can see that it is put there in terms of spring, summer and see that it is put there in terms of spring, summerand autumn, but see that it is put there in terms of spring, summer and autumn, but there was no suggestion on the graph that the peak of the black unmitigated wave would be the end of march and beginning of april.— beginning of april. that's correct.

seedin: beginning of april. that's correct. speeding up _ beginning of april. that's correct. speeding up now _ beginning of april. that's correct. speeding up now because - beginning of april. that's correct. speeding up now because we're i beginning of april. that's correct. - speeding up now because we're coming to final decisions in march. whatsapp messages from mr hancock, rather his whatsapp group that he shared with mr cummings and mr slack, suggests that around this time on the 5th of march, they debate telling you to stop saying business as usual. did you recall that debate with them? i business as usual. did you recall that debate with them?- business as usual. did you recall that debate with them? i don't and nor do i even _ that debate with them? i don't and nor do i even remember _ that debate with them? i don't and nor do i even remember saying - that debate with them? i don't and i nor do i even remember saying that, but using _ nor do i even remember saying that, but using the phrase, but i think what _ but using the phrase, but i think what i _ but using the phrase, but i think what i might have said is, you know, until such _ what i might have said is, you know, until such time as we tell you to do xvz. _ until such time as we tell you to do xyz, it— until such time as we tell you to do xyz, it is— until such time as we tell you to do xyz, it is business as usual, but i don't _ xyz, it is business as usual, but i don't remember that debate. you have described the — don't remember that debate. you have described the genesis _ don't remember that debate. you have described the genesis of _ don't remember that debate. you have described the genesis of the _ don't remember that debate. you have described the genesis of the herd - described the genesis of the herd immunity debate. may i please show you a whatsapp from the 14th of march, running forward a bit to the weekend of which there was a

distinct if we could just look at 14 and, the 14th of march, 7:17am, i think page three of 48399, we can see... i'm not sure that is... the correct document. 48399. yes, it is, thank you very much. just to put it in its context, mrjohnson, over the weekend during which there was a change in strategy, there were repeated conversations between you all, of course, but you raise at this point the point of the impact of herd immunity debate. and you make the point further down the page, i think at 649, 639, yes,

make the point further down the page, ithink at 649, 639, yes, here is the problem with the herd immunity argument. sojust is the problem with the herd immunity argument. so just very shortly, you described to the inquiry how the herd immunity debate arose at the beginning of march, the 5th of march, it appears that you were still debating all your advisors and you were still debating the full meaning of and nature and extent of the herd immunity debate as late as the 14th of march. it appears to have trundled on as a bone of contention weeks. looking at this for the first time, let me _ looking at this for the first time, let me try— looking at this for the first time, let me try to explain what i think this is— let me try to explain what i think this is about. what happened on the 12th of— this is about. what happened on the 12th of march was there was a press conference — 12th of march was there was a press conference in which we were trying to deal— conference in which we were trying to deal with... i

conference in which we were trying to dealwith... i had conference in which we were trying to deal with... i had to level with the public— to deal with... i had to level with the public and say,